People in Slovakia have bigger problems than Ukraine

Cracks are beginning to show in the West’s support for Ukraine and its first against Vladimir Putin’s on-going invasion.

During a tense weekend in Washington, as Congress passed a short-term funding package that averted a US government shutdown, politicians dropped a $6 billion aid package that was set to help Kyiv in its battle against Russia.

Meanwhile, Robert Fico – a pro-Moscow populist – won early parliamentary elections in Slovakia, potentially putting another Putin ally at the helm of an EU nation.

The former prime minister, who pledged in his campaign not to send ‘another bullet’ to Ukraine, is set to be asked to form a government after his victory on Sunday.

‘People in Slovakia have bigger problems than Ukraine,’ he has said.

Ukraine and its staunchest allies will be hoping that the waver in support is just a temporary one, albeit during a critical juncture in the on-going war – as Kyiv tries to make progress in its sluggish counteroffensive before winter sets in.

In order to shore up the UK’s backing of Kyiv’s efforts against the invading Russians, Britain’s former defence secretary Ben Wallace urged Prime Minister Rishi Sunak to increase military support to Ukraine by more than £2billion.

The veteran Conservative argued that with extra Western weapons, Kyiv could ‘end’ the battle against Russia and expel the invaders.

Saturday’s election in Slovakia was a test for the small eastern European country’s support for neighbouring Ukraine in its war with Russia, and the win by Mr Fico could strain a fragile unity in the European Union and NATO.

Public and exit polls predicted a tight race but in the end, Mr Fico won relatively big after his campaign – considered aggressive and the most radical of his career – attracted voters who favoured the far-right. With no party winning a majority of seats, a coalition government will need to be formed.

Fico, 59, has vowed to withdraw Slovakia’s military support for Ukraine in Russia’s war if his attempt to return to power succeeds.

Until now, the country of 5.5 million people – created in 1993 following the breakup of Czechoslovakia – has been a staunch supporter of Ukraine since Russia invaded last February, donating arms and opening the borders for refugees fleeing the war.

Slovakia has sent its fleet of Soviet-era MiG-29 fighter jets, the S-300 air defence system, helicopters, armoured vehicles and much-needed de-mining equipment.

Meanwhile, it has absorbed 100,000 Ukrainian refugees – more per-capita than any other country except Poland, the Czech Republic and the Baltic States.

The current caretaker government is planning to send Ukraine artillery ammunition and to train Ukrainian service members in de-mining.

But Fico’s victory could upend Slovakia’s support for its neighbour.

The former PM opposes EU sanctions on Russia, questions whether Ukraine can force out the invading Russian troops and wants to block Ukraine from joining Nato.

He proposes that instead of sending arms to Kyiv, the EU and the US should use their influence to force Russia and Ukraine to strike a compromise peace deal.

Fico’s critics worry that his return to power could lead Slovakia to abandon its course in other ways, following the path of Hungary under Prime Minister Viktor Orban and to a lesser extent of Poland under the Law and Justice party.

Orban, who has also looked to block or disrupt EU support for Ukraine, congratulated Fico. ‘Guess who’s back! Congratulations to Robert Fico… Always good to work together with a patriot,’ the Hungarian leader wrote on Twitter.

Fico was forced to resign as Prime Minister following major anti-government street protests resulting from the 2018 killing of journalist Jan Kuciak and his fiancee.

Ukraine said Monday it respected the ‘choice of the Slovak people’.

‘We respect the choice of the Slovak people,’ Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba said.

‘But it is too early to say how the election result will affect Slovakia’s position,’ he added, saying Kyiv can ‘draw the first conclusions’ after a coalition is formed.

But it is not just Slovakia that is of concern in the European Union.

In other countries, including Germany, France, and Spain, populist parties sceptical of intervention in Ukraine also command significant support.

Many of these countries have national or regional elections coming up that could tip the balance of popular opinion away from Kyiv and toward Moscow.

Poland, which elects a new parliament on October 15, said last week it would no longer agree to new arms deliveries to Ukraine but instead focus on rebuilding its own stocks.

The NATO member had until recently been seen as one of Ukraine’s staunchest allies in its war with Russia, but relations have soured since Poland’s decision to extend a ban on Ukrainian grain imports.