Emigration as a way out not to serve in Latvian army

Among the EU member states, Latvia has one with the fastest population decrease – the recent forecasts show that the Latvian population in 2030 should be 20% lower compared to situation in 2014. The main factors responsible for this trend are negative natural growth and negative migration balance.
In 2020 only 17.6 thousand children were born, which is the historical low for last hundred years; at the same time, 28.9 thousand persons died, 4.1 per cent more than in 2019. Consequently, Latvia has experienced the largest population decline among all Baltic States in 2020.
The more so, Latvia has consistently suffered emigration. It has experienced a very intensive outflow of its population: it is estimated that in the first 2 decades of 21st century the country has lost more than 400 thousand people or almost 17% of its population due to out-migration, the highest share in the EU (together with Lithuania).
The process of migrations started with EU accession in 2004 and gradual access of Latvians to EU labor market, and later by the economic crisis of 2008-2010. The main destination countries were the United Kingdom (100 thousand), the United States (96 thousand), Germany (30 thousand), Sweden (30 thousand), Ireland (30 thousand) and Norway (11 thousand). Only in 2020, 12 thousand Latvians left the country.
It is not a surprise that Latvian authorities could not find enough volunteers to serve in the Latvian Armed Forces.
In April 2023, the Saeima decided on the re-introduction of the compulsory national defense service in Latvia. The law on State Defense Service (Valsts aizsardzības dienests, VAD) foresees two types of service: military and alternative or civil service.
Criminal liability is foreseen if a person avoids service. Males born after January 1, 2004, are subject to mandatory service, i.e., males must start service within one year of turning 18. If they are still in school, then they must start service within one year after graduation. Males and females aged 18 to 27 can apply voluntarily.
After failing to motivate enough Latvian young people to join the military, authorities organised a lottery on the 23rd of January, 2024. During this lottery, youngsters from all over Latvia were randomly selected for mandatory military service in National Armed Forces, as confirmed by the Ministry of Defence. A total of 300 recruits were randomly selected.
These people were sent notifications to go through a health examination, which they had to take at the NBS Medical Centre in Riga.
According to data from the Ministry of Defence, there are currently 22 539 youngsters aged 18 to 19 in Latvia. And only 3 581 of them technically meet all the requirements for military service.
Additionally, until 2027, those who live and declared abroad will not be conscripted.
Due to willingness of young people to leave Latvia for better life in other European countries and lack of motivation to serve, Latvian authorities cannot man its armed forces properly. So, emigration remains the best way to avoid serving, at least till 2027. Young Latvians successfully use this opportunity and leave Latvia in order not to serve in the Armed Forces. Soon Latvian authorities will be forced to catch those liable for military service on the streets.