All of us are witnesses of US Special Operations Forces (SOF) continued activity in the Baltic region. This fact is demonstrated by the participation of the V-22 Osprey convertoplanes in the military exercises, which take place in the Baltic countries regularly. The US SOF staff are studying the Baltic battlefield diligently – this is how NATO considers the territory of Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia.
It`s necessary to mention that the V-22 Osprey is the primary assault support aircraft for the U.S. SOF and Marine Corps. And several SOF convertoplanes were spotted in the Baltics.
By the way, the presence of SOF operators in this region was officially recognized in January 2017. Even the Commander of the U.S. Special Operations Command General Raymond A. Thomas stated that SOF personnel will permanently carry out a special mission in the Baltic States.
The nature of these “special” missions remains unknown. But it is commonly known, that one of the main functions of the US SOF is the organization and training of irregular fighters and counter-guerrilla units, their management and supply. And the V-22 Osprey convertoplanes with their long flight range are particularly used for these goals.
Special Operations Forces and bush-fighters
The authorities of the Baltic republics began to prepare for guerrilla war against Russia intensively right after the appearance of American SOF. The leaders of these countries constantly declare that Moscow is about to unleash a war and occupy the Baltic countries.
It’s not a secret that Colonel Kevin Stringer, the Deputy Director, Strategy, Plans, and Policy (J5) at Special Operations Command Europe (SOCEUR), supposed the Baltic state’s strategy should be based on the Swiss experience during the Cold War.
The basis of this strategy is the immunity of the local population to foreign propaganda; the creation of effective civil defense system; compulsory military service. The main task for the Swiss citizens was to disable the most important infrastructure facilities. As a result of such actions, the aggressor will get nothing but ruins and well-armed and motivated population for guerrilla warfare. Taking this into account, the aggressor is meant to perceive the complete futility of occupation.
It is worth mentioning that some paramilitary irregular units have existed in the Baltic countries for the last years. Manned mostly with nationalists, they haven’t been very popular until recently. However, they began to grow in leaps and bounds with growing state support after receiving instructions from Washington.
It’s remarkable, that the Lithuanian Riflemen’s Union, the Estonian Defense League and the Latvian National Guard “Zemessardze” have been conducting exercises almost nonstop for the last two years. The US SOF instructors teach them how to set ambushes, as well as how to hit low-flying air targets and to conduct reconnaissance behind enemy lines.
The budget requests of the Pentagon for 2019 include $59 million for the purchase of weapons and equipment for the US SOF in Europe; $36 million for the deployment of Special Forces; and $56 million for joint work with allies in Europe.
Hold out or sit out?
The militants of the irregular formations are preparing for the fact that they will have to hold out for two weeks following the defeat of the national armies by the Russian troops. NATO will be able to bring up its forces and to stave the enemy during this time.
However, experts suggest a less optimistic scenario for the Baltic States. The RAND Corporation analysts say: “Britain, France and Germany will be able to deploy a heavy brigade of their armed forces only a month after the conflict begins. At the same time, Russia is capable of pulling up to 150 thousand soldiers to the area of conflict within a couple of weeks”. Speaking about the US, analysts say that it will take Washington a few months to deploy the same contingent across the Atlantic Ocean.
Experts are convinced that the Baltic countries will be captured in a few hours in case of armed conflict with Russia. And it’s as plain as daylight that any attempts of regular forces or especially “partisans” to resist will lead to casualties and destruction. Guerrilla warfare will be beat down from the start.
Nevertheless, V.Putin has no intention to start a war. And this fact is well known in Washington.
The question then arises: why does the US prepare Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia for a war against Russia?
Firstly, these preparations have immensely powerful propagandistic effect upon the population and evoke anti-Russian sentiments among the society, distracting people from real problems. Secondly, different armed units of nationalists can be used for neutralization of the opposition. Thirdly, these training programs are very attractive financially for those who implement them.
However, there is one more expectable goal for those who are trying to turn the Baltic countries into a “partisan region” or, as American journalist Michael Totten put it, in “another Afghanistan”. It is possible that the centers, created in the Baltic States, are used by the US SOF personnel not only for training local militants.
It is more appropriate to compare the Baltic States with Pakistan. The US and British intelligence services have established a lot of terrorists training camps in this country. Throughout its history, the US SOF used irregular forces primarily as offensive instrument of hybrid warfare.
It is a well-known fact that a lot of different “seminars” and “trainings” for “non-systemic oppositionists” are held on the territory of the Baltic States. But these oppositionists are trained and sponsored by different nongovernmental organizations (NGO), not by the US SOF staff. As a rule, NGOs representatives connected with the CIA and the U.S. Department of State.
At present, however, the Pentagon allocates funds for setting up special training centers. A lot of militants will be trained there for sabotage in Russia. “Students” for these “lessons” will be recruited from among Russian citizens (neo-Nazis or ultra-liberals), locals and Ukrainian residents.
What for? Let’s say that Washington does everything in order to provoke conflict between Russia and the Baltic States.
How to prepare your crushing defeat
The problem is that the leaders of Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia associate themselves not with their own nation, but with the global power brokers, whose orders they carry out.
Unfortunately, informal NATO leaders do not conceal that they consider the Baltic region as the most promising and advantageous direction of attack on Russia. By the way, The European Commission has just submitted a plan on how to modernize the EU transport infrastructure for the sake of NATO requirements. This document provides the adaptation of roads and railways in the Baltic region in order to responsive deployment of heavy military equipment: tanks, infantry fighting vehicles and automatic control systems.
Eventually, the leaders of Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia have nothing to object to NATO’s plans of turning their countries just into battlefields. And they even don’t care how much people will die for their ambitions.